Morning Express - Blue Line Futures
Morning Express

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E-mini S&P (March)

Yesterdays close:Settled at 2582.50, up 10.00

Fundamentals:U.S benchmarks began trading lower last night and have stayed under pressure heading into the morning. Right here yesterday, with the S&P trading at 2575 we said it is within 1% of its exhaustion point. Yesterdays high was 2596.75 and another official Federal Reserve release is arguably a catalyst in selling. The Feds Minutes showed a divided committee but one where all essentially agreed on a wait and see approach after hiking in December. This aligns with the less-hawkish and even dovish (Bullard) rhetoric from officials who have spoken this week. A larger catalyst in this weakness was U.S and China trade talks and their lack of substance. All week, we have been pounding the table that there must be substance and details on key issues coming out of these talks; we got nothing. Adding pressure to the tape last night was a miss across the board on Chinese inflation reads. Today, we look to weekly Initial Jobless Claims at 7:30 am CT. Richmond Fed Chair Barkin speaks at 7:35 am CT. All eyes will be on Fed Chair Powell at 11:00 am CT. Arguably the most dovish member and 2019 voter St. Louis Fed President Bullard is up at 11:40 am CT. Chicago Fed President Evans also a voter in 2019 speaks at noon CT and later this evening Vice Chair Clarida speaks at 4:30 pm CT.

With bank earnings quickly approaching next week, Bill Baruch joined CNBCs Trading Nation to discuss.

Technicals:The bullish tape is tired, we spoke of this here yesterday as price action neared our major three-star resistance and sell target at ...Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

Crude Oil (February)

Yesterdays close:Settled at 52.36, up 2.58

Fundamentals:Crude posted its largest gain yesterday since reversing off the lows the day after Christmas. Reports that U.S and China trade talks included groundwork on energy provided a tailwind for this repositioning run. Saudi Arabia has also been able to reinvigorate price action with publicly stating their desire to achieve $80. While they have already begun to slash exports, comments from their energy minister yesterday pointed to more action potentially coming from OPEC. This jawboning swallowed another bearish EIA inventory report, but domestic inventories remain the elephant in the room. We have said for weeks we dont believe Crude can hold above $50 without a shift to drawing down a bloated storage. Data yesterday not only showed a smaller draw of Crude than expected at -1.68 mb but a massive build of 18.87 mb for the products. Additionally, inventories were added at Cushing for the 15th week in 17. This is not conducive for higher prices unless we continue to get fresh jawboning from OPEC or bullish data from them.

Bill Baruch joined CNBCs Trading Nation yesterday to discuss the energy sector.

Technicals:Crude traded to a high of 52.58 but is consolidating lower and testing support at ...Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

Gold (February)

Yesterdays close:Settled at 1292, up 6.1

Fundamentals:Gold traded to a high of 1298 overnight. The Fed Minutes were supportive to the metal while holding pressure on the Dollar, however, they did not send the Dollar Index any lower than it essentially already was prior. A whiff on Chinese CPI and PPI and weakness in equity markets overnight supported the metal but the psychological $1300 mark continues to be a barrier. Weekly Jobless Claims were better than expected this morning and we now look to a deluge of Fed speak. All eyes will be on Fed Chair Powell at 11:00 am CT. Arguably the most dovish member and 2019 voter St. Louis Fed President Bullard is up at 11:40 am CT. Chicago Fed President Evans also a voter in 2019 speaks at noon CT and later this evening Vice Chair Clarida speaks at 4:30 pm CT. There is a 30-year auction at noon CT. Traders do want to be cautious that this newfound Fed rhetoric is running out of steam, especially as it gets put to the test with U.S CPI tomorrow; remember, capitalize on strength but we do expect Gold to remain in a longer-term uptrend.

Technicals:Price action is testing major three-star resistance at ...Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.



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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.